With elections at home and ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the seafood sector is braced for further uncertainty, writes Jenny Hjul in this month’s round-up of industry news

The Scottish elections next week could see more of the same, with the SNP securing a fifth consecutive term in government, or, if the party falls well short of an overall majority, a coalition of pro-Union parties may usher in a new era at Holyrood.

One thing is certain, though, Scotland’s seafood sector will be represented by a new minister. Mairi Gougeon, the SNP’s Rural Affairs Cabinet Secretary since 2021, is standing down, and her replacement, whatever their political persuasion, will have to come up to speed quickly with the country’s fisheries and aquaculture interests.

To get the next incumbent off to a good start, Salmon Scotland has written to all parliamentary candidates with its simple blueprint for salmon farming: cut red tape and allow the sector to grow.

‘The current protracted consenting process places Scottish businesses at a significant disadvantage compared to other producing nations,’ said the trade body, calling on the next Scottish government to implement the recommendations of the independent Griggs report, published four years ago.

‘This election is a moment for candidates to show they understand the value of the sector and the role it plays in supporting communities across the country,’ said Salmon Scotland CEO Tavish Scott.

‘If Scotland wants jobs, growth, and thriving rural economies, the next Scottish government must back practical reform that cuts delays and gives businesses the confidence to invest.’

Biggest Barcelona

There was support for seafood companies from the UK government when Defra minister Angela Eagle announced a £1.5 million boost to help British seafood reach a wider global market.

During a visit to the Scottish Pavilion at Seafood Expo Global in Barcelona last week, she said the funds would help established UK seafood exporters expand their presence in new markets while giving smaller firms the confidence to start exporting, Fish Farmer reported.

Canada’s federal fisheries minister Joanne Thompson, and Norwegian fisheries minister Marianne Sivertsen Næss also attended the exhibition, but there was no minister from Scotland because of restrictions imposed ahead of the upcoming Scottish elections.

The show, organised by Diversified Communications in the US, was the biggest edition yet, with a record total of more than 35,500 visitors, over 2,290 exhibiting companies from 85 countries and 65 national and regional pavilions, covering more than 52,980 net square metres of exhibit space.

On the eve of the expo, as in previous years, Norway’s DNB bank hosted a summit on global market forecasts. Analyst Ola Trovatn told delegates that DNB predicted salmon demand growth globally of 16% in 2026 after a six per cent decline last year, Undercurrent News reported.

Much of this growth will come from China’s rampant market, said the Norwegian Seafood Council’s China director Sigmund Bjorgo, who tipped China to surpass France and Germany as the second biggest global market (after the US).

Bjorgo said Norway’s current share of this market was ‘too low’, accounting for 56%, compared to an average share in other Asian markets of around 70%.

Middle East conflict

It is Asian markets that are being most impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, although rising fuel costs and restricted trade routes are changing trade dynamics worldwide. Kontali analysts Philip Scrase and Lars Daniel Garshol said in a webinar ahead of the Seafood Expo that Europe has had a surplus of salmon since the conflict hit air freight and then shipping routes to Asia, Seafood Source reported.

The Middle East situation, with logistics costs increasing, ‘can in a way be seen as having a similar real-world effect as a tariff, with Asia markets being more affected than others from that’, they said.

Rabobank’s Gorjan Nikolik said while some impacts are already visible, others are still working their way through the system – and may continue to do so for years.

‘We’re thinking about a global impact that could range from now until three, four, five years,’ the Advocate reported.

In other news, Norway’s largest cod farmer, Ode, is anticipating reaching 40,000 tonnes in 2028, CEO Ola Kvalheim told Undercurrent News. There should be 17,000 tones in 2026 and 27,000 tonnes in 2027, with the company investing heavily in infrastructure and the value chain, he said.

In March, after acquiring juvenile production company Lumarine, Ode outlined its longer term ambitions, saying the extra capacity ‘would be necessary to support a potential annual production volume of around 100,000 tonnes of market-size cod within the next five years’.

Reasons to be cheerful

Around the world, the salmon sectors in Chile and Canada’s British Columbia have cause for optimism. Chile’s new president, José Antonio Kast, was the country’s first sitting premier to attend the biennial Aquasur trade fair in Puerto Montt, a move welcomed by salmon bosses, Fish Farming Expert reported.

During a panel discussion, the big producers said the government was signalling a shift away from sweeping legal reforms and towards pragmatic, administrative regulatory fixes.

Sady Delgado, general manager of AquaChile, said: ‘I believe it sends a very important message to the workers and the companies that are helping Chile grow.’

Meanwhile, on Canada’s west coast a leading salmon farmer said he was encouraged by a ‘change of mindset’ in the federal government.

Cermaq chief executive Steven Rafferty told Fish Farming Expert that he still hoped Mark Carney, in post since March 2025, would reverse the planned 2029 closure of open net pen farms in BC spearheaded by his predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

‘When we got the new prime minister, we thought there was going to be faster action but I think what’s happened in the world with the geopolitics, the Trump decisions, the tariffs, wars, etc, [means salmon farming in British Columbia] has been pushed down the agenda,’ said Rafferty.

‘What we do see is more proactive approaches from the government departments, and a lot more discussion, a lot more meetings being planned, requests for information… we just need patience.

‘We’ve met multiple people from the Canadian government over the last few months and there is a change in mindset; there’s much more understanding that this is a big, multi-million-dollar industry and it can’t just disappear.’

Keep up to date with the industry’s top stories, all in our next news review.